ORACLE CRYSTAL BALL®

Streamline risk and uncertainty analysis in your spreadsheets with this integrated toolset.

Inside Crystal Ball

Crystal Ball is the easiest way to perform Monte Carlo simulations in your own spreadsheets. Crystal Ball automatically calculates thousands of different "what if" cases, saving the inputs and results of each calculation as individual scenarios. Analysis of these scenarios reveals to you the range of possible outcomes, their probability of occurring, which input has the most effect on your model and where you should focus your efforts.

Crystal Ball is for strategic planners, financial analysts, engineers, scientists, entrepreneurs, CPAs, marketing managers, venture capitalists, consultants, Six Sigma professionals, and anyone else who uses spreadsheets to forecast uncertain results. Crystal Ball is taught in the top US business schools and in universities and technical institutions throughout the world.

With Crystal Ball you can:

• Add scalable methods for collaborating
  Get your work done faster. Work as a team sharing standardized uncertainty distributions with publish and subscribe features.

• Communicate and persuade
  Share your findings. Graphs, charts and reports let you vividly present and communicate the results of your analysis.

• Get a credible picture of risk
  The future holds uncertainty and risk and so should your models. Get the information you need from detailed statistics to summarized reports, to understand where to focus your efforts next.

Adding Probability to Risk Calculations

What is the likelihood of reaching a particular goal? What are the critical factors affecting risk? The answer to these and other common "what-if" scenarios can be determined by assigning probability to unknown variables. Excel can't handle the complexity of probability analysis, so you need a better tool: Crystal Ball.

Crystal Ball automates the cumbersome "what-if" process using Monte Carlo simulation, by applying a range of values or a probability distribution to each uncertain variable.

The program generates random values from within the defined probability ranges, and then recalculates the model literally hundreds or thousands of times, storing the results of each "what-if" scenario. This timesaving process alleviates having to manually enter different scenarios over and over again.

> For a description of spreadsheet risk analysis, read our Risk Analysis Overview

FEATURE	BENEFIT	SPOTLIGHT
Monte Carlo Simulation	Calculates multiple scenarios of a spreadsheet model automatically. Frees users from the constraints of estimates and best-guess values.
Distribution Gallery	Provides an intuitive interface for selecting model input variables; includes 16 discrete and continuous distributions plus custom distribution. Simplifies the quantifying of risk, means you don't have to enter the distribution formula into Excel.
Categories of Distributions	Create predefined distributions, modify your existing distributions and organize them using custom categories. Create your own library of distributions, organized in categories. Re-use distributions from one project to the next.
Publish and Subscribe Feature for Categories	Publish categories and share with many users. Work as a team sharing models and data to get your work done faster.
Process Capability Features	Define spec limits (LSL, USL and Target) in your forecasts, calculate capability metrics and view simulation results and metrics together in one split-view chart. With capability metrics in Crystal Ball you simplify your workflow and better integrate simulation into your Six Sigma and Quality methodology.
Forecast Charts	Graphically display simulation results and statistics. Allows users to track and analyze thousands of possible outcomes; charts are interactive.
Split-View charts	View forecast charts, descriptive statistics and capability metrics side-by-side on the same chart. Enable up to 6 charts and tables in one view. One chart tells the whole story.
Sensitivity and Tornado Analyses	Two separate methods for identifying the most critical model input variables. Enable users to focus on high-risk model input variables.	Sensitivity
		Tornado
Distribution Fitting	Uses historical data for defining assumptions. Can fit to continuous and discrete distributions. Allows users to customize model input variables based on real-world results.
Correlation	Models dependencies between uncertain input variables. Provides more accurate modeling and forecasting.
Charting and Reporting	Automates report generation, includes the ability to overlay forecasts and to project trends through time. Creates clear analysis and presentation of all forecasts, improves communication with colleagues, management, and clients.
Precision Control	Provides advanced simulation capabilities. Increases simulation accuracy and flexibility; saves time.
Latin Hypercube Sampling	Alternative simulation method to Monte Carlo. Samples regularly across distribution, excellent for simulations with restriction on number of trials.
Data extraction	Exports data from Crystal Ball memory. Allows users to examine individual simulation results and transfer results to other software programs.
CB Tools	Macro-driven tools that use Crystal Ball; Includes scenario analysis, decision table, data analysis, tornado chart, correlation matrices, 2D-simulation, batch fit, and boot strap. Automates modeling processes with effortless and powerful tools.	Click here for more CB Tool information
CB Predictor™	CB Predictor uses established forecasting methods to help identify and extrapolate the trends in your historical data. CB Predictor analyzes your data and produces insightful and accurate forecasts.
Crystal Ball and CB Predictor Developer Kits	The Crystal Ball and CB Predictor Developer Kits bring complete automation and control to these tools from within a Visual Basic for Applications (VBA) program or any other language outside of Excel that supports OLE 2 automation.	Click here for more information
Microsoft Certification	Certified Excel macro provider. Eliminates security concerns.

IMMEDIATE BENEFITS

Most Crystal Ball users will be proficient in under 30 minutes if they are familiar with Microsoft ® Excel. Plus, the award-winning documentation makes it easy for users to begin seeing the benefits almost instantly. Since the program is a fully integrated Microsoft add-in that seamlessly extends the power of Excel spreadsheet models, the functionality of Crystal Ball is just a few clicks away.

You stop guessing.
While everyone must take risks to succeed, blind risks too often lead to costly errors. Crystal Ball puts the odds in your favor by helping you choose the most promising calculated risks. Each time you perform a Crystal Ball simulation, you gain a richer understanding of the inherent risks.

You have a competitive advantage.
With a Crystal Ball analysis, you know what your competitor does not: the probability of a particular outcome. Because Crystal Ball lets you quantify your risks, it can be a crucial tool for a successful negotiation.

You break free from the limitations of spreadsheets.
Monte Carlo simulation frees you from the constraints of estimates and best-guess values. Why rely on a single, possibly misleading estimate when you can easily create and analyze thousands of potential outcomes? Plus, using Crystal Ball means you no longer need to create several spreadsheets to analyze multiple scenarios.

"Crystal Ball has changed the way my organization performs business and market planning." -- Christopher A. Grier, Business Development manager, ConEd Nuclear Services

You know what matters.
With Crystal Ball's Sensitivity Analysis you will know which factors really drive results. You can focus your energies on the right problem and complete the analysis sooner with less effort.

You look sharp.
Smart decisions alone aren't enough. You need to communicate your decisions. Crystal Ball's graphics and reports are the professional way to show your clients, investors, and management that you thought of all the angles and made informed choices.

"We used a competitor's product and it didn't have the control or the reporting capabilities that were as powerful as Crystal Ball's. You can create the distributions visually and accurately using the wizards and reporting was a snap." -- Vincent Lee, Carnegie Mellon University, GSIA

The CB Tools are a set of advanced plug-ins for all editions of Crystal Ball. These tools add extra functionality to Crystal Ball by helping you to automate model-building tasks, apply alternative analysis techniques, and improve the accuracy of your forecast results.

Setup Tools	Function	Resources
Batch Fit	Automate distribution fitting for multiple data sets.
Tornado Chart	Determine which variables should become assumptions.
Correlation Matrix	Rapidly define and change your assumption correlations.

Analysis Tools	Function	Resources
Bootstrap	Assess the reliability and accuracy of your forecasts.
Decision Table	Quickly evaluate how a range of decisions affects your forecast variable.
Data Analysis	Imports and analyzes historical data in Crystal Ball forecast charts
Scenario Analysis	See which assumption values (inputs) produced a specific forecast result.
2D Simulation	Address the effects of uncertainty and variability in your simulation model.

Available with Crystal Ball, these two Developer Kits consist of macro command and function libraries that unlock the programmability of Crystal Ball and CB Predictor. The macros and functions can be called from within a VBA program or from any other language outside of Excel that supports OLE 2 automation.

With these two kits, advanced users can build custom interfaces, automate Crystal Ball simulations and CB Predictor forecasts, integrate Crystal Ball with other software tools, and even build custom reports or automate post-simulation analysis.

If you perform many of the same repetitive analyses, why not use the developer kits to automate these functions? What you can accomplish is limited only by your imagination and your knowledge of VBA programming.

How powerful are the developer kits?

The CB Tools available with Crystal Ball were created using the Crystal Ball Developer Kit. Each tool uses a combination of Crystal Ball functions and macros to perform such complex tasks as tornado analysis, bootstrap analysis, scenario analysis, and batch fitting. The input screens and background analyses were all customized using the Crystal Ball Developer Kit.

As for documentation, Crystal Ball includes the Developer Kit User Manual that defines each macro and function and includes simple programming examples.

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