Crystal Ball for Beginners
This one-hour Web seminar will teach you the basics of using Crystal Ball while drawing on examples from real-life. Learn how to enhance your spreadsheet models and how to use Monte Carlo simulation for predictive management, forecasting and optimisation.
Presented by Dave Hammal, Senior Risk Consultant at Oracle's Crystal Ball GBU
Recorded November 22, 2007
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| Academic |
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Introducing Simulation to Business Students Using Crystal Ball
Learn how to effectively teach simulation to undergraduate and MBA business students using Crystal Ball.
Presented by Cliff Ragsdale, professor of Business Information Technology at Virginia Tech
Recorded December 12, 2006
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How To Use Crystal Ball In Your Economics Course: Weather Hedging In The Gas Industry
Learn how Crystal Ball can be used to analyze risk associated with hedging strategy using weather-based derivatives
Presented by Jiri Hnilica, Associate Professor at the Prague University of Economics
Recorded December 11, 2006
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Project Risk Assessment Using Crystal Ball
Learn how you can answer questions such as when a project will be complete, how much will it cost, and which resources are affecting the critical path.
Presented by Hameed Nezhad, Professor of Decision Sciences at Metropolitan State University
Recorded October 31, 2006
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Teaching Simulation for Six Sigma
Learn how simulation works with Design for Six Sigma (DFSS) to reduce cycle costs, improve cycle time, and increase customer satisfaction while eliminating rework or scrap and reducing end-of-line testing.
Presented by Crystal Campbell, Trainer and Product Consultant for Decisioneering and Motorola University Blackbelt
Recorded October 5, 2006
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How To Publish a Great Book (especially with Crystal Ball software)
Discover tips to getting your ideas published, the latest trends in publishing, how to make your book a best seller and more
Presented by Bill Falloon, Senior Editor, Finance and Investment, for John Wiley & Sons
Recorded August 31, 2006
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How To Incorporate Crystal Ball Into Your Finance Course
Learn how to integrate simulation and optimization into financial modeling, and how other professors are using the software in their Finance courses.
Presented by John Charnes, Professor, Scupin Faculty Fellow and former Director of the Finance, Economics, and Decision Sciences Area in the University of Kansas School of Business
Recorded May 31, 2006
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| Aerospace |
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Scenario-Based Risk Analysis Using 2-D Simulation
Learn how stochastic simulation tools can be used to perform scenario-based risk analysis using two-dimensional simulation techniques to examine the effects of scenario assumptions on the total uncertainty and risk of a cost estimate.
Presented by Raymond Covert, Technical Director at MCR, LLC
Recorded October 24, 2006
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Cost Optimization of Space Systems
Learn how stochastic simulation tools can be used to solve the problems of optimizing the total cost, affordability and effectiveness of a replacement space system.
Presented by Raymond Covert, Technical Director at MCR, LLC and Karl Luce, Master Black Belt at Decisioneering, Inc.
Recorded October 18, 2005
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| Banking |
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Riesgo Operacional: El reto contemporáneo de la banca internacional
Al finalizar el seminario, habrás entendido:
- La importancia de la aplicación del método de simulación de Monter Carlo para manejar los fenómenos continuos y discretos que se presentan en la gestión del Riesgo Operacional;
- Los compromisos de la industria financiera frente al ACUERDO DE BASILLEA II;
- La invaluable ayuda que nos ofrece Crystal Ball en la creación de modelos de simulación para el análisis del Riesgo Operacional.
Presented by Camilo Romero, Experto internacional y entrenador certificado en Crystal Ball y Real Options Analysis Toolkit
Recorded 25 de Mayo de 2006
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| Business Intelligence |
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Can BI Get Better? Add Risk Analysis To Business Intelligence And Accurately Measure The Significance Of Risk
Learn how to add Crystal Ball risk analysis software and stochastic methods to BI to measure the significance of the risk, highlight where change will be most effective and decide where to act. Bill will show, with a real-world case study of Real Estate sales performance, how to increase the power and relevance of your KPIs.
Presented by Bill Erwin, Applied Business Intelligence Specialist
Recorded June 14, 2006
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| Construction |
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| Modelo de Valoración Financiera Para Proyectos de Construcción
Lo que se propone con esta metodología es una forma más precisa de realizar un análisis financiero por medio de un modelo que permita involucrar el comportamiento de las variables macroeconómicas y microeconómicas que afectan el sector, a través de la proyección de un flujo libre de caja, el cual se descuenta al WACC.
Presented by Sebastián Castaneda, Experto internacional en Crystal Ball y Real Options Analysis Toolkit
Recorded September 27, 2007
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| Corporate Finance |
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Risk-Cost-Benefit Analysis of Installation of Additional Benzene Emissions Controls
The risk-based cost benefit analysis of a decision to install additional airborne emission control equipment involves multiple input factors related to the current and future throughput of the facility (as related to anticipated benzene vapor emission levels), and the cost of new equipment, and its installation and operation during its projected operational life.
Information related to potential health risks is required also, including: (1) the airborne transport of vapors from the facility to a nearby city, (2) the anticipated exposures of children and adults at key locations in the city, (3) the toxicity of inhaled benzene vapor, and (4) the population of the city. This information can be combined to estimate the costs of new emission control equipment and the resulting benefit described as the number of cancer cases in the city population avoided by its use.
This presentation describes how Crystal Ball can evaluate the uncertainties of these input factors to determine which uncertainties contribute to the overall risk-based cost benefit ratio, and to its related decisions.
Presented by Frank Edison, Ph.D., Shaw Environmental & Infrastructure, Inc.
Recorded May 1, 2008
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A Case Study in Using Real Options for Cost Management
Many real options are embedded in the capital budgeting process and difficult to value. Operating managers tend to view them as anything but real. In this web seminar we use a manufacturing case study to show how an outside vendor can offer those options explicitly priced, and thus quite real. Participants will learn how to:
- Model this risk management process from the perspective of the company needing to control costs.
- Compute underlying volatility using Crystal Ball simulation of cash flow at risk.
- Transform embedded options into explicit financial options by offloading risk to a third party.
- Value those options using Crystal Ball.
Presented by Alan E. Gorlick, Faculty Member, University of Phoenix
Recorded Aprill 24, 2008
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Frontiers of Quantitative Financial Risk Analysis
Do you want to be on the leading edge of managing your financial risks? Bring your financial modeling skills and techniques to the next level? This web seminar will demonstrate numerous advanced and useful financial risk modeling methods previously not accessible in spreadsheets such as copulas, advanced time-series, and aggregate distributions.
Using Crystal Ball in conjunction with ModelRisk for Insurance and Finance allows you to quickly construct and debug sophisticated quantitative financial models without having to resort to custom programming.
Presented by Huybert Groenendaal, Ph. D., MBA, Partner, Vose Consulting
Recorded April 3, 2008
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Capital Project Evaluation and Optimization with Crystal Ball Tools
Learn how to use time series forecasting to estimate future market share, how to use optimization of product pricing over product life to maximize profit, and how to perform valuation of strategic flexibility to expand production in strong market conditions.
The conclusions of the seminar focus on the dramatic transformation of the original single point-estimate profit forecast, into a more realistic and valuable assessment of expected profit, risk, and key drivers that guide management in its decision-making.
Presented by Steve Hoye, Senior Risk Consultant at Oracle
Recorded October 3, 2007
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Modelo de Valoración Financiera Para Proyectos de Construcción
Lo que se propone con esta metodología es una forma más precisa de realizar un análisis financiero por medio de un modelo que permita involucrar el comportamiento de las variables macroeconómicas y microeconómicas que afectan el sector, a través de la proyección de un flujo libre de caja, el cual se descuenta al WACC.
Presented by Sebastián Castaneda, Experto internacional en Crystal Ball y Real Options Analysis Toolkit
Recorded September 27, 2007
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Cash Flow at Risk – Electronic Chip Production
Profitable production of electronic circuitry runs the gauntlet of unique technical and marketplace hurdles, all of which involve risk and cost. Many of these costs require stochastic models, because single point analysis fails to value various aspects of cash flow at risk.
Presented by Alan Gorlick, financial consultant and University of Phoenix faculty member
Recorded September 25, 2007
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The Value of Predictive Analytics in Strategic Corporate Finance
A high-level overview of how simulation and optimization can be used in strategic corporate finance, the benefits that can be gained over typical deterministic analytics.
Presented by Steve Hoye, Senior Crystal Ball Risk Consultant
Recorded May 31, 2007
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Integrating Risk Analysis Tools in Financial Analysis
Forecasting, simulation, real options and optimisation techniques are increasingly popular tools that provide Financial Analysts with analytic power beyond the traditional toolset.
This web seminar is designed for both the beginner and advanced financial analyst and will fully cover the A to Z of applying risk analysis techniques.
Presented by Dave Hammal, Crystal Ball Product Consultant
Recorded April 26, 2007
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Mastering a Key Strategic Challenge: Sustained Value Creation through Business Cases
There are few tasks as important, or as difficult, as deciding upon a new strategic direction for your organisation. Many people still rely on traditional cost-benefit-analysis, NPV, ROI, and decision trees, when developing business cases. This seminar provide case studies with insights that helped decision makers create more valuable strategies, assure robustness and sustainability, and align their organisation for execution.
Presented by Dr. Volker E. Pollmann, Ph.D, a Managing Director at Solution Matrix
Recorded March 28, 2007
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Financial Modeling: Empower Your Spreadsheets with Monte Carlo Simulation
Using "single point estimates" might not be dead, but after this Web seminar, you will never see financial modeling the same again. Learn how to turn static Microsoft® Excel data and financial models, into true risk models and how to apply Crystal Ball to financial modeling.
Presented by John Charnes, Professor, Scupin Faculty Fellow, and former Director of the Finance, Economics, and Decision Sciences Area in the University of Kansas School of Business
Recorded March 27, 2007
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Financial Risk Analysis: “Know/No Surprises”
With the help of a series of simple Excel spreadsheet models, you will learn how to apply simulation and optimization to answer questions such as: what will my revenues be in the next period, how should I set our financial goals, what should be my earnings guidance, and more.
Presented by Jim Franklin, CEO of Decisioneering Inc
Recorded January 18, 2007
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Integrating Risk Analysis Tools in Financial Analyses
With the help of an integrated financial model, this seminar will provide financial analysts with a complete understanding of why, where and how to apply spreadsheet forecasting, simulation, real options and optimization within their analyses.
Presented by Crystal Campbell of Decisioneering, Inc.
Recorded November 9, 2006
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Financial Modeling: How To Marry Common Sense And Math, For Real-World Modeling
Learn how to use Crystal Ball in long-range planning, sensitivity analysis, and volatility comparison modeling. Emphasis is placed on laying out a simple framework, identifying real-world problems that undermine mathematically sophisticated approaches to modeling, showing "good-enough" workarounds, and reconciling multiple forecast perspectives.
Presented by Mark Odermann, Senior Financial Analyst in Financial Strategy with Microsoft Corporation's Business Division
Recorded November 1, 2006
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Riesgo Operacional: El reto contemporáneo de la banca internacional
Al finalizar el seminario, habrás entendido:
- La importancia de la aplicación del método de simulación de Monter Carlo para manejar los fenómenos continuos y discretos que se presentan en la gestión del Riesgo Operacional;
- Los compromisos de la industria financiera frente al ACUERDO DE BASILLEA II;
- La invaluable ayuda que nos ofrece Crystal Ball en la creación de modelos de simulación para el análisis del Riesgo Operacional.
Presented by Camilo Romero, Experto internacional y entrenador certificado en Crystal Ball y Real Options Analysis Toolkit
Recorded 25 de Mayo de 2006
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Creating Enterprise Value: Maximize Shareholder Wealth by Strategically Allocating Capital using Monte Carlo Simulation
Learn how Crystal Ball software and Monte Carlo simulation can be used to allocate capital and measure the risk-adjusted economic profitability of a structured loan.
Presented by Michael J. Eisenstein, Director at Quantitative Solutions In.
Recorded May 18, 2006
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Risky Business: Gain a Competitive Advantage by Learning How to Control Risk
Learn how to identify and then control uncertainty in your capital investment projects so you can take advantage of promising, yet risky, opportunities.
Presented by David Vose, of the Vose Consulting Group
Recorded February 2, 2006
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| Cost Estimation |
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Assessing Uncertainty and Risk in Government Acquisition
US Government Agencies are implementing policies designed to assess risk in the acquisition process in an effort to prevent program failure and avoid cost and schedule overruns. More recently, agencies such as the Air Force and NASA are asking for cost estimates at specific percentiles (e.g., 70th percentile for cost) for budgeting purposes. This requires knowledge of the probabilistic outcomes of the program or project and, in particular, knowledge of the shape and statistical parameters for an S-curve (cumulative distribution). While this is a positive step, the Government and their contractors (in general) still have fuzzy understanding of the difference between uncertainty and risk.
In this presentation, we will first define uncertainty and risk and show risks can occur in any of these interrelated areas: cost, schedule, and performance. Second, we will show problems with risk analysis processes that may be encountered in the acquisition process. Third, we will present alternate views of risk relationships that can provide a framework for more successful risk assessments. Fourth, we will identify risks found in Government acquisition and finally, we will show how to quantify uncertainty and risk in Crystal Ball.
At the end of this one-hour session, you will have developed an understanding of:
- The relationship between uncertainty and risk
- How to identify problems with risk analyses and how to “fix” them
- Types of risk faced in Government acquisition, their potential causes, and a framework for assessing uncertainty in risk analysis
- How to quantify uncertainties and risk using Crystal Ball
Presented by Ray Covert, Technical Director at MCR, LLC.
Recorded June 2, 2008
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Cost and Risk Modelling - The Challenging Business Driver
Organisations today are increasingly challenged with cost and risk modelling. The seminar will provide case study examples and discuss the major issues in industry both from customer and supplier perspectives.
Presented by Professor Rajkumar Roy with Cost Engineering research at Cranfield University
Recorded July 5, 2007
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Cost Estimating: "The Known Unknown"
Purchasing of materials in the chemical, plastic and fibre industries requires detailed cost estimation. This seminar presents a case study, where the economics of a multi-step chemical process were modelled.
Presented by Dr. Robin MacDonald, Managing Director, PCI Nylon
Recorded April 5, 2007
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Scenario-Based Risk Analysis Using 2-D Simulation
Learn how stochastic simulation tools can be used to perform scenario-based risk analysis using two-dimensional simulation techniques to account for, and separate out, both cost estimating risks, and risks that are dependent on particular programmatic, design and manufacturing scenarios.
Presented by Raymond Covert, Technical Director at MCR, LLC
Recorded October 24, 2006
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Simulation and Optimization as Effective Cost Estimation Tools
Simulation and optimization techniques can provide cost estimating and analysis professionals increased accuracy of estimates and simplified cost and schedule risk analysis, by modeling the probabilistic behavior of the cost estimate.
Presented by Crystal Campbell,Sr. Product Consultant with Crystal Ball
Recorded September 14, 2006
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Improve Business Value from Time and Cost Estimates: How BP uses Monte Carlo Analysis as a Risk Management Tool
Learn how a major oil and gas company has made Monte Carlo analysis a core skill of the thousand-strong well engineering staff at the world's largest privately-owned oil and gas operator.
Presented by Hugh Williamson, BP's global specialist on well cost estimation and risk management
Recorded May 24, 2006
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Cost Optimization of Space Systems
Learn how stochastic simulation tools can be used to solve the problems of optimizing the total cost, affordability and effectiveness of a replacement space system.
Presented by Raymond Covert, Technical Director at MCR, LLC and Karl Luce, Master Black Belt at Decisioneering, Inc.
Recorded October 18, 2005
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| Design for Six Sigma |
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Optimized Scheduling through Probabilistic Modeling
Scheduling customers for virtually any process or service (event) can be notoriously inaccurate and
unreliable, especially when there are numerous factors affecting the duration of the event, or there
are numerous event types.
The resultant effect of scheduling difficulties includes wait time for the service provider (staff), wait
time for the customers, and later than expected end-of-workday. In addition to wait time, either
early or later-than-scheduled start or finish times can result in other forms of waste and non-valueadded
activity.
Optimized scheduling balances voice-of-the-customer (VOC) with the voice-of-the-process (VOP),
and achieving this balance reduces inefficiencies associated with not meeting needs of the
customer and/or the business.
This presentation uses curve fitting of historical data (of the duration of the events
scheduled), and Monte Carlo analysis to determine the cumulative effect of those distributions on
subsequent scheduled events.
Presented by Rob Allen, AIT Group
Recorded May 29, 2008
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Using Probabilistic Modeling Techniques and Monte Carlo Simulation To Improve Supply Chain Inventory Forecasting Capability, While Optimizing Product Fill Rates
Historically, several organizations spent a tremendous amount of effort and money forecasting the appropriate amount of inventory during peak seasonal demand periods, sometimes forecasting too much inventory, in excess of customer demand, and sometimes under forecasting below the true customer demand.
The latter scenario will unfortunately result in a lost sale opportunity and an Out of Stock condition, thus directly impacting sales and margin dollars. The former case typically results in excessive inventory levels of unsold products, along with an excessive dollar tag attached to the inventory carrying costs and a high risk of product obsolescence.
This presentation provides a solution to this problem, by demonstrating a methodology that improves product fill rates and reduces inventory simultaneously.
Presented by Hani I. Noshi, Senior Consultant & Manager, MBB, with Accenture
Recorded May 15, 2008
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Modeling and Simulation for DFSS
Modeling and simulation has shown tremendous value during product development by validating that the product design fulfills customer requirements. Key design risks can be identified and mitigated early on in the product lifecycle, when changes are the least expensive. Learn practical applications of modeling and simulation for DFSS projects.
Presented by Mark Petrotta, Functional Architect, Systems Engineering at General Dynamics Land Systems.
Recorded November 27, 2007
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Monte Carlo Simulation as Process Control Aid
Statistically designed experiments (DOEs) have become an essential tool in many fields of research because they can lead to rapid learning and optimization in less time and with less cost. Learn how Monte Carlo simulations helped uncover a “hidden” process factor and how a process was improved through sequential DOE.
Presented by Dirk Jordan, Ph.D., Six Sigma Black Belt at Motorola
Recorded July 18, 2007
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Selecting Distribution Models
Distribution models are important tools for all statistical tasks, including estimation, prediction, simulation, and communication. This seminar presents essential tools for selecting and applying distribution models.
Presented by Andy Sleeper, President of Successful Statistics LLC
Recorded March 21, 2007
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Monte Carlo Simulation in Chemical Process Design
This seminar presents a case study demonstrating the use of Monte Carlo simulation in assessing and managing project financial risk (NPV), capital engineering budget risk and design technical risk.
Presented by Randy Perry, Master Consultant with Sigma Breakthrough Technologies, Inc. (SBTI)
Recorded February 22, 2007
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Teaching Simulation for Six Sigma
Learn how simulation works with Design for Six Sigma (DFSS) to reduce cycle costs, improve cycle time, and increase customer satisfaction while eliminating rework or scrap and reducing end-of-line testing.
Presented by Crystal Campbell, Trainer and Product Consultant for Decisioneering and Motorola University Blackbelt
Recorded October 5, 2006
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Minitab and Crystal Ball Synergy for Multiple Response Optimization
Learn how Minitab and Crystal Ball can be used in combination to explore design tradeoffs (i.e. improving one response might unfavorably impact another response) and find the optimum in the presence of variability.
Presented by Eric Maass, Motorola's Director for SSPD / DFSS Methods and Technology
Recorded July 6, 2006
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DFSS Approach: Using Monte Carlo Simulation for Probabilistic Design
Learn how to integrate probabilistic modeling, Monte Carlo analysis and Filtered Monte Carlo optimization into a process map of sequential analytic experimentation and design optimization.
Presented by Martha Gardner, Ph.D., Global Quality Leader, GE Global Research
Recorded June 28, 2006
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Using Simulation and Optimization to Improve Your DFSS Projects
Learn, through a series of case studies, how to use simulation and optimization to create a successful new product or process when it has little or no available design data.
Presented by Karl Luce, Master Black Belt with Decisioneering, Inc.
Recorded May 9, 2006
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Roadmap for Success: Monte Carlo Simulation in Design for Six Sigma
Presents an overview of the DFSS product commercialization process. Shows when to apply Monte Carlo Simulation in financial analysis, multiple response optimization and statistical tolerancing.
Presented by Randy Perry, Senior Consultant with Sigma Breakthrough Technologies, Inc. (SBTI)
Recorded April 11, 2006
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| Energy |
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Power Asset Evaluations: Challenges in Dealing with Uncertainty
Simulation analysis of two separate gas fired power generation plants will be presented – the first one at the development and the second one at the operational stage.
Presented by Andrei Smilenov, Director Analysis and Planning at NiSource Inc.
Recorded February 6, 2007
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Developing a Strong Energy Asset Portfolio Using the “Efficient Frontier” Approach
explore how to develop a strong energy asset portfolio with a case study on power plants. The case study illustrates implementation of the “efficient frontier” approach to portfolio development.
Presented by Jim Letzelter, Partner, with Webb, Scott & Quinn
Recorded January 18, 2006
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| Environmental |
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Risk-Cost-Benefit Analysis of Installation of Additional Benzene Emissions Controls
The risk-based cost benefit analysis of a decision to install additional airborne emission control equipment involves multiple input factors related to the current and future throughput of the facility (as related to anticipated benzene vapor emission levels), and the cost of new equipment, and its installation and operation during its projected operational life.
Information related to potential health risks is required also, including: (1) the airborne transport of vapors from the facility to a nearby city, (2) the anticipated exposures of children and adults at key locations in the city, (3) the toxicity of inhaled benzene vapor, and (4) the population of the city. This information can be combined to estimate the costs of new emission control equipment and the resulting benefit described as the number of cancer cases in the city population avoided by its use.
This presentation describes how Crystal Ball can evaluate the uncertainties of these input factors to determine which uncertainties contribute to the overall risk-based cost benefit ratio, and to its related decisions.
Presented by Frank Edison, Ph.D., Shaw Environmental & Infrastructure, Inc.
Recorded May 1, 2008
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Global Warming – Will We Bake or Not?
This seminar shows a Monte Carlo simulation model that forecasts global temperature increase by 2100 using both a linear and logarithmic relationship between CO2 concentration (independent variable) and temperature (dependent variable).
Presented by Gaetan ‘Guy’ Lion, Vice President, Planning and Analysis
Recorded July 19, 2007
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Valuation of Weather Derivatives
Weather-related risks affect businesses all over the world. This seminar presents an easy-to-use framework for valuation of weather derivatives and how to create actionable items to manage weather-related risks.
Presented by Jiri Hnilica, Associate Professor in the Department of Business Economics at the University of Economics in Prague, Czech Republic
Recorded July 12, 2007
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Simulation and Water Supply Forecasting
Demonstrates how to use Monte Carlo simulation and regression methods to develop better water supply forecasting models in the American West. He will present and comment on a variety of case studies of canal companies in Colorado.
Presented by John McKenzie, founder of Innovastat Corporation
Recorded March 20, 2007
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Probabilistic Environmental Risk Assessment of Pesticides
Learn how pesticide risk assessment models developed for the European Union can incorporate uncertainty and variability to provide a greater understanding of potential pesticide risks.
Presented by Mark Crane, Director of the environmental consultancy Watts & Crane Associates
Recorded January 23, 2007
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Simulation in an Alien Environment: How to Help Public Bodies Apply Risk Analysis
English municipalities now have a system of tradable permits that involves risk and uncertainty within the management of waste. Learn how Urban Mindes introduced Monte Carlo simulation methods to the deterministic economic model developed by the UK Government model to help manage risks.
Presented by Glyn Jones, Environmental Economist with the not-for-profit consultancy, Urban Mines
Recorded November 7, 2006
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Enhance 5 Common Environmental Engineering Computations to Better Control Uncertainty
Demonstrates how 5 common environmental engineering computations can be greatly enhanced to provide powerful new insight into identifying and controlling inherent uncertainties.
Presented by John Yagecic, a professional engineer and modeler with the Delaware River Basin Commission
Recorded March 15, 2006
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Estimating Environmental Liabilities Using Probabilistic Engineering Methods
Learn how probabilistic engineering methods can be used to robustly and defensibly quantify environmental liabilities.
Presented by John Rhodes and Keith Brodock of Haley & Aldrich, Inc., and Karl Luce of Decisioneering, Inc.
Recorded November 30, 2005
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| Financial Planning |
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The Next Generation of Financial Planning
Demonstrates the use of Crystal Ball software in a series of financial planning applications, including how to project probabilities of future wealth, incorporating all tangible assets as well as financial assets that include stock options, restricted stock, qualified and non qualified accounts, etc.
Presented by Mike Patton, Principal of Integrity Wealth Management, LLC
Recorded September 19, 2007
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Advising with Confidence - Using Stochastic Analysis in Financial Planning
Learn how Bank of America applies stochastic analysis that allows the planner to test and visualize thousands of possible outcomes to better tailor the client's plan.
Presented by Terence Condren, Director of Planning Solutions at the Bank of America Private Bank
Recorded August 18, 2005
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| General Business |
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Making Your Critical Path Smarter - Schedule Risk Analysis with Crystal Ball
Understand schedule risk analysis, the differences between traditional critical paths and a risk analyzed critical path and the benefits, including: on time project delivery, accurate assessment of scope changes, ease in presenting information.
Presented by Lorrie Tietze, Founder and Manager, Interface Consulting, LLC
Recorded September 11, 2007
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I'll Be Back: DVD Sales Forecasting
Describes a methodoloy used to gauge how many DVDs to create for newly released movies, along with the challenge of determining how reliable past behavior is at predicting future behavior.
Presented by Michael Lieberman, President of Multivariate Solutions
Recorded April 24, 2007
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Business Value Simulations on Basel II Business Case
Discusses data quality and the important role it plays in the framework of Basel II-auditing, as well as building better business cases for Capital Review Committees.
Presented by Julia Stumpenhagen from just.dot and Johannes Ritter from Solution Matrix
Recorded March 15, 2007
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Aplicaciones de las Simulaciones de Monte Carlo (Crystal Ball) en la Valoración de Riesgos de Mercado
Los participantes observarán en el programa Crystal Ball la solución de diferentes módulos de valoración de riesgo de mercado.
Presented by Camilo Romero, Conferencista internacional y entrenador certificado en Crystal Ball y Real Options Analysis Toolkit
Recorded January 24, 2007
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Providing What Decision Makers Need - Insights
Illustrate with case studies how to create decision frameworks that engage decision makers in a dialog that actively uses the insights that stochastic analysis tools can provide.
Presented by Dr. Gerald A. Bush, Ph.D., founder and chairman of Decision Strategies.
Recorded October 11, 2006
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| General Risk Analysis |
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Creating Assumptions in Crystal Ball
Join Dave Hammal, Crystal Ball Solution Specialist for this one-hour web seminar and learn the basics of how to build assumptions (create uncertain input values) into your spreadsheet models and allow for variability. It will also guide you on how to select from the many different probability distributions available and how you can assess if your choice was a good one.
Recorded March 20, 2008
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Como resolver problemas complexos nas áreas de engenharia, finanças, marketing e planejamento por meio do Crystal Ball
Neste seminário mostraremos como solucionar alguns problemas complexos utilizando-se planilhas eletrônicas juntamente com simulação de Monte Carlo. A simulação é realizada por meio das facilidades do Crystal Ball®. Estes exemplos são associados a quatro áreas distintas: mercado financeiro, engenharia, orçamento de capital e marketing.
Recorded August 29, 2007
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Workshop de Manejo de Optimizador
Oscar Bravo Mendoza presentará Aplicación práctica de optimizador en aplicaciones de portafolio de oportunidades y la selección de el número óptimo de pozos en un campo petrolero.
Presented by Oscar Bravo Mendoza, funcionario de la Dirección de Planeación y Riesgos de Ecopetrol S.A
Recorded April 18, 2007
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NPV and the Impact of Risk
Learn how to integrate NPV with defined accounting measures like ARR and ROI.
Presented by John Casticas, Managing Partner, John Nicholas & Company
Recorded April 10, 2007
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Why Can’t You Just Give Me the Number?
An executive's guide to using probabilistic thinking to manage risk and to make better decisions
Discusses the pros and cons of using different statistics as "the number," why you should be risk-neutral at the project level, and traps to avoid when working at the portfolio level.
Presented by Pat Leach of Decision Strategies Inc.
Recorded November 14, 2006
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Providing What Decision Makers Need - Insights
Illustrate with case studies how to create decision frameworks that engage decision makers in a dialog that actively uses the insights that stochastic analysis tools can provide.
Presented by Dr. Gerald A. Bush, Ph.D., founder and chairman of Decision Strategies.
Recorded October 11, 2006
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How To Lie With Statistical Graphics
Examines the impact of choices in filtering, aggregation, and design on graphical integrity. Examples include applications to Crystal Ball simulations and to current events.
Presented by Andy Sleeper, President, Successful Statistics LLC
Recorded September 22, 2006
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| Marketing |
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Making Informed Decisions: Using Stochastic Analysis To Plan Marketing Programs
Learn how stochastic simulation tools are helping a Fortune 200 company decide whether to make a $7 million annual investment in new marketing tactics
Presented by Wayde Fleener, Senior Decision Consultant at Carlson Marketing
Recorded January 12, 2006
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| Life Sciences |
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Driver Based Revenue Forecasting
There are many basic financial questions in the pharmaceutical industry that are hard to answer: Why are sales growing/not growing? Why are we under/over budget? In this one-hour Crystal Ball Web seminar attendees will learn the benefits of establishing revenue forecasting standards with a focus on revenue models, business processes, and supporting analytics.
Presented by John Grecsek, Finance Director, World Wide Operations, Pfizer.
Recorded January 29, 2008
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Optimizing Pharmaceutical Sales Forces Territories
How should pharmaceutical firms allocate fair and efficient sales territories to their sales representatives? How can the many variables be incorporated into a model to come up with an optimum allocation of sales territories? Furthermore, how can this process be automated and updated as the company's markets expand and change. Learn how an optimization model was created to help a large pharmaceutical company efficiently allocate sales force territories.
Presented by Dr. Francisco Zagmutt, Senior Risk Analyst with Vose Consulting.
Recorded January 22, 2008
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