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| ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING & RISK ASSESSMENT |
In your environmental work:
- How do you assess risk when direct measurements of contaminants
are impractical?
- How do you quantify the levels of contamination when they
are below the limits of detection?
- How do you address the reliability of your mathematical results
when key variables are bounded by large confidence intervals?
- How do you communicate the certainty of your estimates and
schedules to your clients and managers?
More often than not, subjective best estimate values contain
uncertainty. Crystal Ball software provides a tool for you to encompass
the uncertainty surrounding dose, exposure, and risk levels.
Crystal Ball is a Microsoft® Excel®-based suite of analytical tools that includes Monte Carlo simulation, optimization, and forecasting. With little effort, you can apply these advanced analytical techniques to your new or existing spreadsheets to create more accurate cost and schedule predictions and better informed financial decisions.
Today, Crystal Ball is the tool chosen by
more than 85% of the Fortune 500. Companies like Woodward Clyde,
TRW, Golder Associates, CH2M Hill, and Battelle and organizations
such as the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency all rely on Crystal
Ball to manage environmental risk and make more informed business
and strategic decisions.
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Crystal Ball is for anyone who uses spreadsheets
and needs to forecast uncertain results. Environmental geologists,
cost engineers, environmental scientists, hydrogeologists, and
project managers all rely on Crystal Ball to improve the quality
of their spreadsheet-based decisions.
Why should you perform a probabilistic
risk assessment?
While not yet mandated by government regulations, quantitative
risk analysis is an increasingly preferred method of assessing
contamination risk, especially in cases where there is an absence
of site-specific data. Monte
Carlo simulation is a long established method for defining
the uncertain components in a mathematical model and for providing
an estimate of uncertainty for your analysis of risk.
 In
1996, the
National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements (NCRP) published NRCP Commentary No. 14, A Guide for Uncertainty Analysis
in Dose and Risk Assessments Related to Environmental Contamination, which addressed key issues in performing and reviewing quantitative
uncertainty analysis. This commentary states, "Incorporating
uncertainty analysis into a dose or risk assessment provides an
essential ingredient for decision making."
Evaluations of the need for cleanup of contamination at Superfund
sites now require quantitative risk assessments. The EPA has published
several handbooks and papers on Guiding
Principles for Monte Carlo Analysis, The
Use of Monte Carlo Simulation in Risk Assessments, and hundreds
of other documents (available as downloads from the
EPA Web site) that describe case studies, recommended parameter
values, and policy issues.
"In contrast to deterministic techniques, probabilistic
risk assessments more fully consider ranges of values regarding
potential exposure, and then weight possible values by their
probability of occurrence."
"Without Crystal Ball, we would not have been able to
do our required risk assessment. It was really the crucial
tool for the job."
- Scientific
Advisory Panel (SAP) at the EPA's March 1998 Meeting |
Key features of interest to your industry include sensitivity and tornado analysis, correlation, and historical
data fitting. The sensitivity analysis and tornado analysis
are two separate methods that help you to understand which of
the uncertain inputs drive the uncertainty in your models. Correlation
lets you link uncertain inputs and account for their positive
or negative dependencies. If historical data does exist, the
data fitting feature will compare the data to the distribution
algorithms and calculate the best possible fit and parameters
for your data.
Two-Dimensional Simulation:
Separate the effects of variability from uncertainty
The 2D Simulation tool was expressly designed
for environmental risk assessments. With its simple wizard interface,
this tool can help you to distinguish between sources of uncertainty
(where you have insufficient information about a true, though
unknown, value) and variation (where uncertainty is due to inherent
variability in a population). The tool lets you more accurately
predict the uncertainty in your forecast when natural variability
(e.g. body weights, amount of water consumed per individual)
is part of your mathematical model. No other comparable software
package contains this tool.
LEARN MORE ABOUT CRYSTAL BALL FOR ENVIRONMENTAL APPLICATIONS
This page offers links to a growing number of resources, including recorded Web seminars, articles, white papers, case studies, and example models. Additionally, you can view a list of common uses and examples reported directly from customers using Crystal Ball. You can also download a free trial version of Crystal Ball to see how it can help improve your business forecasts and decisions!
"Without Crystal Ball, we would not
have been able to do our required risk assessment. It was
really the crucial tool for the job."
-- Miles Constable, Senior Toxic Substances Officer,
Environment Canada |
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RECORDED WEB SEMINARS
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Enhance 5 Common Environmental Engineering Computations to Better Control Uncertainty
Demonstrates how 5 common environmental engineering computations can be greatly enhanced to provide powerful new insight into identifying and controlling inherent uncertainties.
Presented by John Yagecic, a professional engineer and modeler with the Delaware River Basin Commission
Recorded March 15, 2006
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View recording
 Download files
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Estimating Environmental Liabilities Using Probabilistic Engineering Methods
Learn how probabilistic engineering methods can be used to robustly and defensibly quantify environmental liabilities.
Presented by John Rhodes and Keith Brodock of Haley & Aldrich, Inc., and Karl Luce of Decisioneering, Inc.
Recorded November 30, 2005
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View recording
Download files |
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Global Warming – Will We Bake or Not?
This seminar shows a Monte Carlo simulation model that forecasts global temperature increase by 2100 using both a linear and logarithmic relationship between CO2 concentration (independent variable) and temperature (dependent variable).
Presented by Gaetan ‘Guy’ Lion, Vice President, Planning and Analysis
Recorded July 19, 2007
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View recording
Download files |
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Simulation and Water Supply Forecasting
Demonstrates how to use Monte Carlo simulation and regression methods to develop better water supply forecasting models in the American West. He will present and comment on a variety of case studies of canal companies in Colorado.
Presented by John McKenzie, founder of Innovastat Corporation
Recorded March 20, 2007
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View recording
Download files |
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Probabilistic Environmental Risk Assessment of Pesticides
Learn how pesticide risk assessment models developed for the European Union can incorporate uncertainty and variability to provide a greater understanding of potential pesticide risks.
Presented by Mark Crane, Director of the environmental consultancy Watts & Crane Associates
Recorded January 23, 2007
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View recording
Download files |
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Simulation in an Alien Environment: How to Help Public Bodies Apply Risk Analysis
English municipalities now have a system of tradable permits that involves risk and uncertainty within the management of waste. Learn how Urban Mindes introduced Monte Carlo simulation methods to the deterministic economic model developed by the UK Government model to help manage risks.
Presented by Glyn Jones, Environmental Economist with the not-for-profit consultancy, Urban Mines
Recorded November 7, 2006
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View recording
Download files |
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Valuation of Weather Derivatives
Weather-related risks affect businesses all over the world. This seminar presents an easy-to-use framework for valuation of weather derivatives and how to create actionable items to manage weather-related risks.
Presented by Jiri Hnilica, Associate Professor in the Department of Business Economics at the University of Economics in Prague, Czech Republic
Recorded July 12, 2007
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View recording
Download files
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WHITE PAPERS & ARTICLES
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Application of Monte Carlo Analysis for Assessing Radiation Doses and Risks to Humans
By Pawel Krajewski |
Download |
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Composition and contaminant loads of residual household waste Part III: Physico-chemical properties and contaminant concentrations
By Weigand, H. & Marb, C.
NOTE:This is only the English language abstract. The entire paper, written in German, is available for purchase from the publisher. |
Download |
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Engineering Estimates for Environmental Liability a la Crystal Ball
By John A Rhodes, Vice President, Haley & Aldrich, Inc.; Keith P. Brodock, Staff Professional, Haley & Aldrich, Inc.
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Download |
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Environmental Liabilities and Simulation
By Jon B. Hoogenboom (on the Financial Engineering News Web site) |
Download |
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An Introductory Guide to Uncertainty Analysis in Environmental
and Health Risk Assessment (ES/ER/TM-35/R1)
By J.S. Hammonds, F.O. Hoffman, S.M. Bartell (on the Risk
Information Web Server at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory) |
Download |
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Modeling the Cost of Load and Wasteload Allocations
By Chris Miller (section on EPA site with case study and optimization model for Crystal Ball) |
Download |
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On Bayesian Decision Analysis for Evaluating Alternative Actions at Contaminated Sites
By Jenny Norrman, Swedish Geotechnical Institute (hosted on Swedish Geotechnical Institute Web site) |
Download |
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Quantitative Uncertainty Analysis of Superfund Residential Risk Pathway Models for Soil and Groundwater: White Paper
by E.A. Dawoud and S.T. Purucker (hosted on the Risk Information Web Server at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory) |
Download |
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Probabilistic Risk Assessment for Pesticides: Estimating Effect Levels for Target and Non-target Species
By John J. Johnston, Ph.D., M.B.A., United States Department of Agriculture / National Wildlife Research Center
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Download |
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Sensitivity Analysis with Correlated Inputs - An Environmental Risk Assessment Example
By Srikanta Mishra, INTERA Inc.
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Download |
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Using Open Crystal Ball for Environmental Modeling at the Hanford Site
Brett Simpson, Principal Investigator, Vivid Learning Systems
Charles T. Kincaid, Principal Investigator, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
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Download |
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Water Quality Risk Assessment for Dredging Operations, Plymouth Sound, UK
By Tim Wells, ABP Marine Environmental Research Ltd
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Download |
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Policy Papers
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CASE STUDIES
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EXAMPLE MODELS
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Groundwater Cleanup
Detail: Your remediation company wants to bid on a project.
The costs for the different cleanup methods vary according to the
resources and time required for each (cleanup efficiency). With
historical and site-specific data available, you want to find the
best process and efficiency level that minimizes cost and still
meets the study's recommended standards with a 95% certainty. Includes
optimizations setting file and uses a decision variable to select
different sets of assumptions. |
Download
For:
Crystal Ball & OptQuest
Level:
Simple |
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Remedy Defender Demonstration Model
From: John Rosengard, Environmental Risk Communications, Inc., Piedmont, CA. (See ERCI's Consultants' Corner listing for contact information)
Detail: This model compares three environmental restoration scenarios for a single site. The model in this workbook quantifies several issues (e.g. timing of the cleanup, duration of key phases, litigation risk analysis) with Crystal Ball assumptions. The three scenarios are variations on risk transfer with the remediation contractor. |
Download
For:
Crystal Ball
Level: Simple-
Moderate |
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Risk Assessment at a Toxic
Waste Site
Detail: This simple spreadsheet model predicts the cancer risk to the population from a toxic waste site. The pollutant at the waste site and the population close to the site are both sources of uncertainty, which complicates the calculation of a risk assessment value. Overestimating the population risk can mean a waste of resources on unnecessary remediation, while underestimating the risk can pose a very real danger to the local population. |
Download
For:
Crystal Ball
Level:
Simple |
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COMMON USES & EXAMPLES
The following examples were provided by our customers and represent
only some of the potential environmental and engineering applications
for Crystal Ball.
- Cost Engineering applications: forecasting the most likely
construction or remedial action cost and most likely construction
schedule at different stages of project definition
- Ecological risk assessment
- Environmental health risk assessment
- Evaluation of engineering alternatives for environmental remediation
projects (in mining industry)
- Financial risk assessment for IT technology purchases
- Human health risk assessment with distributions of inhalation
rates, body weights, and water consumption (instead of point
values)
- Management of nuclear waste storage
- Portfolio environmental risk analysis for a real estate transaction
- Quantify soil and vadose zone contamination inventory and uncertainty
- Quantifying uncertainties inherent in greenhouse gas emissions
inventory
- Radiation and chemical exposure assessment (experiment design
based on DOE Data Quality Objectives)
- Risk management in project finance and implementation
- Stochastic fate modeling of chemicals in the environment and
health risk assessment
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TEXTBOOKS
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THIRD-PARTY TOOLS
Crystal Ball is pleased to partner with companies that incorporate
Crystal Ball into their existing software toolkits.
Defender Series
The Fast Environmental Regulatory Evaluation
Tool (FERET)
Risk Assessment Model (RAM)
| DEFENDER
SERIES |
| REMEDY DEFENDER - environmental
decision analysis & budgeting software
To evaluate environmental strategies, responsible parties may
now use a more precise software tool and auditable procedures.
With Defender, companies with environmental liabilities compare
risk-adjusted net present values of competing strategies. After
complying with applicable laws and regulations and mitigating
any immediate threats to human health and the environment, users
rank alternatives by the financial interest of the shareholders.
PORTFOLIO DEFENDER - environmental liability management
software
Portfolio Defender provides a defensible, auditable and reproducible
process for companies to estimate, display, and disclose their
environmental remediation liabilities. Recently-adopted accounting
standards allow companies to not only set reserves using ranges
of liability forecasts, but the present value of these cost forecasts.
Portfolio Defender creates these estimates, and restates them
for budgeting, reserve forecasting, litigation risk, and acquisition/divestiture
valuations.
REMEDY DEFENDER - litigation risk analysis software
Issue: Contingent environmental liabilities must be disclosed
once they are "reasonably estimable" [FASB 5]. Point
estimates satisfied this purpose until AICPA SOP 96-1 Sec.7.19
clarification. Now, disclosed ranges (based on FASB 5 definitions
of "remote, likely, and reasonably possible") have gone
from preferable to necessary. In typical litigation risk analyses,
factors are either/or, and expressed through decision trees. Remedy
Defender's litigation risk analysis starts from the decision tree
and lets users bracket probabilities, cost estimates, judgments,
any point of uncertainty.
Click
here to learn more about the Defender Series of products
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| THE
FAST ENVIRONMENTAL REGULATORY EVALUATION TOOL (FERET) |
 FERET
uses Excel and Crystal Ball to help you evaluate regulations or
projects involving criteria air pollutants, health impacts and
accidents.
The Fast Environmental Regulatory Evaluation Tool (FERET) is
a benefit-cost template that facilitates the analysis of regulatory
alternatives to improve the environment, health and safety. FERET
was created and funded by the Center for the Study and Improvement
of Regulation at Carnegie Mellon University and the University
of Washington.
FERET can be used to assist both regulatory development and public
participation. The current module builds upon a user supplied
regulatory design to estimate the impacts, costs and benefits
of changes in air pollution or direct changes in health outcomes.
FERET provides a computational structure, access to peer reviewed
literature, and supporting documentation. The prototypical user
of FERET is expected to be an analyst in a regulatory agency,
non-governmental organization, or regulated entity who is under
budgetary and time constraints to complete an evaluation. That
person, possibly you, is expected to have a Master's degree or
higher in a relevant field although
at least one part of impacts or valuation will likely to be outside
of their field.
FERET is designed to: 1) encourage best practice, 2) be (relatively)
transparent and modifiable, 3) incorporate a peer reviewed approach
of EPA as a default and 4) utilize databases of the research literature
in both health impacts and economic valuation.
Click here to learn more about FERET
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RISK
ASSESSMENT MODEL (RAM) |
 Environmental Simulations International Ltd (ESI) is an innovative,
high-quality independent consultancy that provides practical solutions
to soil and groundwater problems. They specialize in the application
of quantitative hydrogeological techniques to investigation, monitoring,
groundwater modelling, risk assessment, remedial design and data
management.  ESI
has developed RAM (Risk Assessment Model), a customisable quantitative
decision tool for risk-based groundwater assessment and decision-making
in brownfield redevelopment and environmental protection. The
software is designed for Tiered Risk Assessment using the four
tier Remedial Targets Methodology presented by the UK Environment
Agency in Environment Agency Publication 20, Methodology for the
derivation of remedial targets for soil and groundwater to protect
water resources (Environment Agency, 1999).
As well as Tiers 1, 2 and 3, which are pre-configured for rapid
assessment in both deterministic and probabilistic modes, RAM
incorporates a unique Tier 4 semi-analytical model designed to
represent detailed site specific cases where multiple sources,
pathway sections and receptors may need to be evaluated without
compromising on the conceptual model involved. There is also scope
for customised site specific detailed water balances to be included
in the model to simulate features of real site risks and remedial
designs.
Click here to visit ESI's RAM Product page
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